In September, county real estate markets across Northern California diverged based on available inventory. Regions with significant year-over-year declines in listings experienced increased competition and stronger pricing, whereas areas with inventory growth saw elevated buyer leverage and more frequent price reductions.
Markets that tightened significantly included San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda, and Sonoma. San Francisco led the region in competitiveness, with 92% of single-family homes selling above list price and year-over-year median prices rising 17% for single-family homes and 23% for condominiums. In San Mateo, the median price increased 9%, supported by 63% of sales closing above list.
Contra Costa, Monterey, and Santa Cruz presented mixed conditions. Monterey recorded a 22% increase in closed sales alongside a 12% rise in active listings and a 2% minor contraction in median price. In Santa Cruz, sales volume held steady, though nearly half of all single-family listings underwent price reductions.
Softer market performance was observed in Santa Clara, Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Solano, and Napa. While Santa Clara maintained strong transaction velocity, active listings expanded by 15%, price cuts rose by 49%, and the single-family median dropped 4%. In the greater Sacramento region, moderating transaction volumes coincided with expanding inventory, driving price reduction increases of 34% in Sacramento, 37% in Placer, and 32% in El Dorado (where supply expanded to 4 months).
Condominium market performance generally lagged single-family properties across most counties. San Francisco stood out as a notable exception, where the share of condos selling above list rose 27 percentage points to 66%; condo market conditions also improved in Alameda and San Mateo.
October Outlook: Seasonal fall inventory is entering the market, including in high-demand areas. Month-over-month new single-family listings increased 62% in San Francisco and 17% in San Mateo from August. The rate at which buyers absorb this new inventory will determine if recent momentum carries into the fourth quarter. In softer markets, the ongoing frequency of price cuts will indicate whether sellers are successfully adjusting expectations to align with shifting buyer leverage.
Note: September figures are preliminary; late MLS reporting typically adjusts closing tallies for approximately two weeks following month-end. Source: Compass
